The coronavirus pandemic will have three waves before it subsides by the summer of 2021.
This opinion was expressed by Mikhail Paltsev, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Center for Immunology and Molecular Biomedicine of the Moscow State University.
The expert draws attention to the fact that in the summer the incidence has decreased, but it is expected that a new wave may come in autumn. The academician believes that there are three seasons, during which epidemic waves have taken place and are likely to reoccur: spring, autumn and the upcoming spring of 2021.
Mikhail Paltsev believes that it will be possible to return to a normal lifestyle only by the summer of 2021.
To confirm his point of view, the scientist recalls that other viral epidemics also had three waves. The first one turned out to be quite strong, the second one was even stronger, while the third wave was weaker due to the emergence of herd immunity. Mikhail Paltsev in particular referred to three waves of Spanish flu that took place in the early 20th century.
According to him, the herd immunity occurs if more than 60 percent of the population experiences the disease, and the infection disappears when 95 percent of the population recovers.
"These are theoretical conclusions, but they are confirmed by most authors, including practicing doctors. Let's see. The virus is new, so one needs to study and observe statistics," the expert says.